Hurricane forecasters on Monday (May 21) were tracking a weather disturbance they say has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression this week in the Gulf of Mexico. It has the potential to make things wet in New Orleans for Memorial Day weekend.

Where is it now? 
As of 7:30 a.m. Monday, the weather disturbance was in the Caribbean Sea and extended across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. It's expected to move into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.
 

What does it mean for New Orleans?
The National Weather Service office in Slidell said the system could bring heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf Coast starting late Friday and through Memorial Day weekend, depending on the speed and the track.

Danielle Manning, a meteorologist at the Slidell office, said the forecast currently has the metro area getting four to five inches of rain over the next seven days.
But, she cautioned those totals depend on the disturbance and said the forecast will likely change.
"Keep an eye on the forecast and be prepared for a potentially wet weekend," she said Monday morning.

NOLA.com

Tropical disturbance heading for Gulf could mean wet Memorial Day weekend in New Orleans

By Carlie Kollath Wells | Posted May 21, 2018 at 10:28 AM

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Hurricane forecasters on Monday (May 21) were tracking a weather disturbance they say has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression this week in the Gulf of Mexico. It has the potential to make things wet in New Orleans for Memorial Day weekend.

NOAA

Where is it now? 
As of 7:30 a.m. Monday, the weather disturbance was in the Caribbean Sea and extended across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. It's expected to move into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.

NOAA

What does it mean for New Orleans?
The National Weather Service office in Slidell said the system could bring heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf Coast starting late Friday and through Memorial Day weekend, depending on the speed and the track.

NOAA

Danielle Manning, a meteorologist at the Slidell office, said the forecast currently has the metro area getting four to five inches of rain over the next seven days.
But, she cautioned those totals depend on the disturbance and said the forecast will likely change.
"Keep an eye on the forecast and be prepared for a potentially wet weekend," she said Monday morning.

NOAA

Will it become a storm?
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said the disturbance on Monday morning has a near 0 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance (low) of developing into at least a tropical depression within five days.
The development stages are, from weakest to strongest:

• Tropical depression
• Tropical storm
• Hurricane

For this system, the National Hurricane Center said environmental conditions aren't expected to be favorable for development during the next couple days. However, "some gradual development" is possible later this week while it moves into the Gulf.
The system could bring heavy rain to western Cuba and Florida over the next several days regardless of development, forecasters said.

What's causing it?
The National Hurricane Center said widespread cloudiness and showers are associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface trough. This weather pattern is drawing deep tropical moisture northward, from the southwest Caribbean Sea, and is supporting scattered to numerous moderate to strong showers, across Cuba to Florida and the Bahamas and the nearby Atlantic Ocean. This activity is expected to continue through at least Tuesday, with  heavy rainfall and flooding.